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👀Before You Escape, Answer This👀

  What am I feeling right now, right before this click, bored, anxious, stuck on a hard sentence? Just naming it takes away some of its power. Will I be proud of this moment tonight, or will I feel that same empty regret I already know so well? What am I actually avoiding right now, is it the book itself, or just the discomfort of not immediately understanding something? If I give myself permission to feel uncomfortable for ninety seconds without escaping, what happens? Because most urges like this actually peak and fade within about a minute or two if you just sit with them. Is this action moving me toward the person I’m trying to become, or the person I’m trying to stop being?
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BJJ jargons, the language of pajama-wrestling. Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu has more jargon than a startup pitch deck. Here’s the greatest hits: General Terms Gi – the kimono/judo-like uniform you sweat into. No-Gi – training without the gi, in rashguards and shorts. Basically “slippery mode.” Roll – sparring. No, not sushi. Tap / Tap Out – surrendering before your joints snap. Usually involves frantic slapping. OSS – the universal grunt of respect, agreement, greeting, or just filler noise. Nobody agrees on its origin. Positions Guard – you on your back with legs wrapped around the opponent, pretending it’s intentional. Closed Guard – legs locked around your opponent’s waist like a desperate koala. Open Guard – same thing, but legs free and flailing. Half Guard – you trap one of their legs, basically halfway between dead and alive. Mount – sitting on someone’s chest like a smug gargoyle. Side Control – pinning them sideways, crushing hopes and ...

The Art of the Meal: Trump’s TACO Diplomacy

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In May 2025, a new nickname for President Donald Trump— "TACO," short for "Trump Always Chickens Out" —emerged and quickly gained traction across financial circles and social media platforms. Coined by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong, the term critiques Trump's pattern of announcing aggressive tariffs that unsettle markets, only to later retract or soften these measures in response to negative economic reactions.   This pattern has led to the so-called "TACO trade" strategy among investors: buying stocks during market dips caused by Trump's tariff threats, anticipating a rebound when he retreats from these positions.  The nickname has also become a viral meme, with images depicting Trump adorned with tacos and chickens circulating widely. Comedian Jimmy Kimmel highlighted the trend on his show, further amplifying its reach.  President Trump has publicly expressed his displeasure with the moniker, labeling questions about it as "nast...

Trump's Immigration Wins and Legal Speed Bumps

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 The U.S. Supreme Court has recently delivered significant rulings that bolster President Donald Trump's immigration policies, while also delineating constitutional boundaries. Key Victories for the Trump Administration Termination of Humanitarian Parole Programs : The Court permitted the administration to end temporary humanitarian parole for approximately 532,000 migrants from Venezuela, Cuba, Haiti, and Nicaragua. This decision reverses a prior injunction and subjects many to expedited removal, aligning with Trump's stricter immigration enforcement stance.  Revocation of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) : An emergency Supreme Court order allowed the administration to revoke TPS for about 350,000 Venezuelans, marking one of the largest removals of legal protections in U.S. history.  Judicial Checks and Due Process Concerns Despite these victories, the Court has imposed limitations to safeguard constitutional rights: Alien Enemies Act Limitations : The Cour...

Major Factors Behind Rising Long-Term U.S. Treasury Yields

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 When the  yields    (interest rates)  of l ong-term U.S. treasury bonds such as the  10-Year Treasury  go up, it means the U.S. government must pay more to borrow money for these bonds. This change reflects investor behavior and broader economic conditions. Here’s a comprehensive list of all major causes of rising 10-year Treasury yields: 📈 1. Inflation Expectations Increase If investors think future inflation will rise, they demand higher yields to compensate for the reduced purchasing power of their returns. This is one of the most common reasons yields rise. 🏦 2. Federal Reserve Policy (Tightening) When the Fed raises short-term interest rates , long-term yields often rise too — especially if the Fed signals inflation is a risk. The Fed also affects long-term rates by: Ending bond purchases (quantitative easing) Selling bonds (quantitative tightening) 📊 3. Strong Economic Growth A growing economy increases dem...

特朗普的美国制造业伟大复兴梦

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特朗普政府政策的核心目标只有一个。正如万斯(JD Vance)本周在演讲中所说,其目标是推动美国制造业的伟大复兴。 特朗普认为,要按照他设想的经济、社会和政治方向改造美国的关键,在于恢复全国各地的工厂和铸造厂。 不幸的是,这种情况不仅极不可能发生,而且推动这一目标的努力将付出高昂代价,并对美国人民造成伤害。 美国应该制造更多产品”这个想法很有吸引力。我们都认为,一个富裕而强大的国家应该拥有巨大的工厂,冒着浓烟,源源不断地生产商品并销往全球。这种印象深深刻在我们的脑海里。然而,这实际上是 过去的景象,而非未来的发展方向 。 当今世界上最发达的经济体几乎都由服务业主导。在全球最富裕的工业化国家中,服务业占据了绝大多数的就业岗位。在美国,非农就业岗位中,服务业占比超过80%,而制造业仅占不到10%。 美国向世界出口的主要产品并不是实体商品,而是软件及软件服务、娱乐、金融服务等无形产品。而且,在这些领域,美国对全球并不是贸易逆差,而是贸易顺差。 为什么会出现这种转变? 因为当人们变得更富裕、受教育程度更高时,他们会 花更多钱在服务上,而不是商品上 。在1960年,美国消费者在商品上的消费支出占比超过50%。而到了2010年,这一比例下降到了 33% ,企业真正赚钱的地方已经从商品转向了服务。 举个例子,一双运动鞋的制造成本可能只有25到30美元,但它的真正价值体现在设计、市场营销和销售,这些环节决定了最终能够卖到100美元。那么,你更希望你的工人从事制造业,还是参与高价值环节? 在过去40至50年间,制造业在各国经济中的占比,以及制造业就业在总就业中的占比,都在稳步下降。 1973年,美国制造业就业占比约为25%,如今已降至约8%。 英国、加拿大 的情况类似,即使是传统的制造业强国,如 德国、法国、日本 ,制造业就业比例也大幅下降。 日本的案例:特朗普想要效仿的国家 日本是一个重要的研究案例,因为它基本上做了特朗普希望美国做的所有事情。 日本通过高关税和贸易壁垒保护国内市场免受外国商品竞争。 政府大力推进产业政策,扶持制造业发展。 社会崇尚制造业,教育系统强调技术技能和工匠精神。 然而,日本的制造业仍然在稳步衰退。事实上,我们甚至可以说,正是这些政策导致了日本产业的衰落。 政府支持的行业(如VHS录像机、随身听等)最终错过了技术...

Predictive Processing -- Mind and Reality

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Me: Predictive processing, a theory suggesting that our perception of reality is a controlled hallucination. The brain generates predictions and sends them to our sensory systems, meaning what we see, feel, or hear isn’t direct reality but a reflection of these predictions. How do you explain this? Plato: The idea you're referring to comes from the predictive processing theory, which is a cutting-edge perspective on how the brain interprets the world. According to this theory, perception isn't just a passive reception of sensory information; instead, the brain constantly generates predictions about what it expects to happen based on past experiences. These predictions are then compared to incoming sensory signals, and the brain updates its understanding of the world accordingly. In simpler terms, your brain creates a model of the world and uses that model to predict what's going to happen next. When you see something, for example, your brain doesn’t just wait for the imag...